CitationKuboniwa, Masaaki (2005). Russia’s population crises in the 1990s and the long run*: how can we dream with Russia?. PIE Discussion Paper Series March 2005.
AbstractThe main purpose of this paper is the statistical analysis of population crises in Russia in the 1990s and the long run. This is a preliminary research to determine the outlook for the intergenerational interest adjustment trend, as well as the population trend in the 21st century in Russia. This paper examines the Russian population crisis and demographic paths to 2050 in view of international comparisons, based on data by the Russian Statistics Office and the United Nations.
First, it is shown that in Russia subsequent population drops for 1993-2050 can be expected. It is clarified that the population crisis in the 1990s made the beginning of long term population decline trend earlier and deeper. Then this paper statistically verifies the population crisis in the 1990s, and presents a new estimate of premature deaths or population loss due to the early transition. In addition, employing dependent ratios as a reference, the impacts of the 1990s crisis on demographic and pension burdens in Russia are