Kumo, Kazuhiro (2013). Analysis on Russian demographic trends. HIER Discussion Paper Series (B) No. 42
This paper presents a migration self-regulation model within the framework of the neoclassical economics. The model is constructed on the evolutionary game dynamics of migration flows. It is assumed that the central institution of migration self-regulation is the labor market and the equilibrium solution is driven by the wage equating forces of migration. The model can predict the dynamics of migration determined by wage differentials and the labor market situation as well as the dynamics of wage levels determined by migration simultaneously for source and host regions. Employing the model to Russian regions and CIS states data, this paper analyzes the effects of liberalization of the migration policy in Russia. The predicted migration of the labor force from CIS states to Russian regions looks quite realistic and has important policy consequences. In particular, these findings can be used for developing work permit quotas.
HIER Discussion Paper Series (B) No. 42