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Endogenous Preferences and Long-Term Effects of Public Policies: Alcohol Consumption and Life Expectancy in Russia [Working Paper]

Citation

Kueng, Lorenz & Yakovlev, Evgeny (2016). Endogenous Preferences and Long-Term Effects of Public Policies: Alcohol Consumption and Life Expectancy in Russia [Working Paper]. Northwestern University.

Abstract

We use two quasi-natural experiments in the 1980s and 1990s to identify how policies affect important long-term outcomes by changing preferences. Large but short-lived shocks to product availability in Russia shifted young consumers' long-run preferences from hard to light alcohol. The resulting large current cohort differences in alcohol consumption patterns explain a significant part of the recent increase in Russian life expectancy. Moreover, mortality of working-age males will continue to decrease by another 23% over the next twenty years. Program impact evaluations that focus only on contemporaneous effects can therefore severely underestimate the total effect of such public policies.

URL

http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/directory/kueng_lorenz.aspx#research

Reference Type

Report

Year Published

2016

Author(s)

Kueng, Lorenz
Yakovlev, Evgeny